AA 851 · ORD → ATL

departs 8:28 AM CT · arrives 11:33 AM ET

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 851 · ORD → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?