Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 860 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 860 · BZN → DFW

departs 2:13 PM MT · arrives 6:25 PM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

56% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BZN

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

BZN (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 860 · BZN → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?