Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9829 LANDED 5:24 AM CT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 9829 · PHL → MSN

took off 4:28 AM ET · landed 5:24 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MSN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9829 · PHL → MSN

Odds over time