AA 9830 · MSN → PHL

took off 10:07 PM CT · landed 12:37 AM ET (scheduled 10:03 PM CT → 1:21 AM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ 10pm departures from MSN are usually not late

Weather at each end

MSN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9830 · MSN → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?