Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9831 LANDED 11:19 AM CT, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AA 9831 · JFK → DFW

took off 9:03 AM ET · landed 11:19 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9831 · JFK → DFW

Odds over time