Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1014 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AS 1014 · LIH → HNL

departs 7:12 AM HT · arrives 7:48 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into HNL at that hour are usually not late

↓ 7am departures from LIH are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1014 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?