Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1032 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1032 · HNL → ITO

departs 10:01 AM HT · arrives 10:55 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at ITO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ITO?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ ITO is prone to delays

↓ Arrivals into ITO at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.01 in

ITO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1032 · HNL → ITO

Odds over time

How late will it get to ITO?