Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1033 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1033 · HNL → LIH

departs 8:33 AM HT · arrives 9:14 AM HT

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1033 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?