Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1066 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1066 · HNL → OGG

departs 10:10 AM HT · arrives 10:52 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling5,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1066 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?