Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1084 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1084 · LIH → HNL

departs 1:43 PM HT · arrives 2:22 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 4:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1084 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?