Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1103 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

departs 3:39 PM HT · arrives 4:20 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LIH that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.01 in

LIH (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1103 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?