Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1106 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1106 · HNL → OGG

departs 12:31 PM HT · arrives 1:15 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,533 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1106 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?