Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1116 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AS 1116 · HNL → OGG

departs 1:01 PM HT · arrives 1:45 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1116 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?