AS 1118 · HNL → KOA

took off 1:08 PM HT · landed 1:38 PM HT (scheduled 12:53 PM HT → 1:52 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to KOA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

KOA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1118 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late did it get to KOA?