AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

departs 6:06 PM HT · arrives 6:58 PM HT

Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling5,714 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIH (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?