Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1157 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AS 1157 · KOA → HNL

departs 6:30 PM HT · arrives 7:17 PM HT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.11 in

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1157 · KOA → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?