Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1259 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1259 · KOA → OGG

departs 1:52 PM HT · arrives 2:29 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 3:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KOA

Weather at each end

KOA (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling10,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1259 · KOA → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?