Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1380 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AS 1380 · SEA → SMF

departs 10:10 AM PT · arrives 12:10 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1380 · SEA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?