Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1386 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1386 · PDX → BUR

departs 2:55 PM PT · arrives 5:13 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into BUR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ PDX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1386 · PDX → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?