Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1395 LANDED 1:16 PM PT, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AS 1395 · SEA → BUR

took off 11:09 AM PT · landed 1:16 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±1 pts +20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1395 · SEA → BUR

Odds over time