Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1401 LANDED 9:30 AM PT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 1401 · SEA → SAN

took off 7:14 AM PT · landed 9:30 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1401 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time