AS 1416 · HNL → OGG

took off 8:37 AM HT · landed 8:53 AM HT (scheduled 8:23 AM HT → 9:13 AM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1416 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?