AS 1426 · HNL → OGG

took off 12:53 PM HT · landed 1:14 PM HT (scheduled 12:14 PM HT → 1:04 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1426 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?