Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1447 LANDED 4:40 PM PT, ~3 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

took off 2:55 PM CT · landed 4:40 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1447 · ORD → SAN

Odds over time