Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1452 LANDED 5:34 AM CT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 1452 · SEA → BNA

took off 11:51 PM PT · landed 5:34 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 19h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1452 · SEA → BNA

Odds over time