Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1503 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1503 · BOI → ANC

departs 1:43 PM MT · arrives 4:18 PM AKT

Forecast issued Thu 7:00 AM ET · 57h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↑ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOI

↓ BOI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BOI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,733 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1503 · BOI → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?