Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1558 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 1558 · ANC → ADK

departs 12:09 PM AKT · arrives 2:19 PM HDT

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 PM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at ADK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADK?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 47 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ADK that day

↓ ADK usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into ADK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ADK (destination) Gusts47 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1558 · ANC → ADK

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADK?