Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1607 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Today

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

departs 11:00 AM PT · arrives 12:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 51% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1607 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?