AS 1649 · FAI → SEA

took off 12:03 PM AKT · landed 4:19 PM PT (scheduled 12:09 PM AKT → 4:41 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ 12pm departures from FAI are usually not late

↓ FAI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1649 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?