Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 217SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday
AS 217 · IAD → SAN
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:24 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
30%chance · ±2 pts+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.