Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 232 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 232 · ADQ → ANC

departs 9:28 AM AKT · arrives 10:30 AM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at ADQ that day

↑ Other factors

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ 9am departures from ADQ are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ADQ (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.29 in

ANC (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 232 · ADQ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?