Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 232 LANDED 5:01 PM HT, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 232 · SFO → OGG

took off 3:07 PM PT · landed 5:01 PM HT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 232 · SFO → OGG

Odds over time