Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 242 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 242 · SEA → DEN

departs 1:33 PM PT · arrives 5:20 PM MT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 242 · SEA → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?