AS 254 · SEA → SAN

took off 8:55 PM PT · landed 11:17 PM PT (scheduled 8:33 PM PT → 11:14 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 254 · SEA → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?