Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 277 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 277 · PHL → SEA

departs 7:33 AM ET · arrives 10:32 AM PT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 277 · PHL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?