Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 302 LANDED 6:24 AM MT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3

AS 302 · ANC → PHX

took off 12:30 AM AKT · landed 6:24 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 18h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↑ ANC is prone to delays

↓ 12am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 302 · ANC → PHX

Odds over time