AS 307 · ANC → ADQ

departs 6:28 PM AKT · arrives 7:36 PM AKT

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at ADQ more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ADQ?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 43 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.7 in of rain forecast at ADQ that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Other factors

↓ ADQ usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into ADQ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ADQ (destination) Gusts47 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip2.68 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 307 · ANC → ADQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ADQ?