AS 308 · ADQ → ANC

took off 8:35 AM AKT · landed 9:16 AM AKT (scheduled 7:00 AM AKT → 8:09 AM AKT)

Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ANC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 38 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.3 in of rain forecast at ADQ that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into ANC at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ADQ (origin) Gusts47 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip2.50 in

ANC (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling5,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 308 · ADQ → ANC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ANC?