AS 366 · SEA → IAD

took off 4:11 PM PT · expected to land 11:25 PM ET (scheduled 4:12 PM PT → 11:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to IAD?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.20 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 366 · SEA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?