Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 389 LANDED 5:41 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Today

AS 389 · SAN → MCI

took off 12:55 PM PT · landed 5:41 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 389 · SAN → MCI

Odds over time