AS 391 · YYZ → SEA

took off 5:27 PM EDT · expected to land 7:11 PM PT (scheduled 4:53 PM EDT → 7:12 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 391 · YYZ → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?