Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 415 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AS 415 · DFW → SEA

departs 1:02 PM CT · arrives 3:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 56h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

SEA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 415 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?