AS 415 · SEA → PDX

took off 9:14 PM PT · landed 9:45 PM PT (scheduled 9:02 PM PT → 9:56 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to PDX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ 9pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 415 · SEA → PDX

Odds over time

How late did it get to PDX?