Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 416 LANDED 8:45 AM PT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

AS 416 · SEA → PAE

took off 8:39 AM PT · landed 8:45 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +33 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 416 · SEA → PAE

Odds over time