AS 451 · SEA → HNL

took off 7:05 PM PT · landed 9:25 PM HT (scheduled 7:03 PM PT → 9:50 PM HT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 451 · SEA → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?