AS 486 · SEA → JNU

took off 8:56 PM PT · landed 9:56 PM AKDT (scheduled 8:07 PM PT → 9:44 PM AKDT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at JNU more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to JNU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at JNU that day

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ JNU usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

JNU (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 486 · SEA → JNU

Odds over time

How late did it get to JNU?