AS 504 · SEA → STS

took off 8:04 PM PT · landed 9:36 PM PT (scheduled 7:56 PM PT → 9:51 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ STS is prone to delays

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 504 · SEA → STS

Odds over time

How late did it get to STS?