tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

AS 521 · SJC → SEA

departs 2:16 PM PT · arrives 4:27 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
30% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 4.8d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to SEA?

  1. On time or early
    70%
  2. 15–30 min late
    14%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    10%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.