AS 553 · LAS → STS

took off 2:37 PM PT · landed 3:55 PM PT (scheduled 2:39 PM PT → 4:19 PM PT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ LAS is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 553 · LAS → STS

Odds over time

How late did it get to STS?