AS 582 · SEA → ANC

took off 7:13 PM PT · landed 9:16 PM AKT (scheduled 7:01 PM PT → 9:45 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ANC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at ANC

↑ 7pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ SEA is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at SEA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 582 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ANC?